Researcher Information

NAKAGAWA Mitsuhiro


Can we forecast the volcanic eruption?

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Earth and Planetary System Science


the medium-and-long term volcanic activity forecast, the preparation and eruption processes of the super eruption, mitigation of the volcano disaster

Fieldvolcanic geology, tephrastratigraphy, petrology, geochemistry, disaster prevention
Keywordvolcano, caldera volcano, volcanic eruption, super eruption, tephra, mantle, magma, silicic magma, magma plumbing system, preparation processes of eruption, eruption forecast

Introduction of Research

My research interests are the understanding of volcanic processes, such as generation, ascent and stagnation and eruption processes of magma, by using geological, petrological and geochemical methods. These researches are also important for the mitigation of volcanic hazards. Thus, I am recently involved in the developing of the eruption forecast for active volcanoes in Japan. Detail geological and petrological studies can reveal the eruption history and temporal evolution of magma system beneath a volcano, clarifying the long-term change of magmatic processes and the present state of a volcano. These could develop medium- and long-term eruption forecast and eruption event trees. I also focus on the caldera-forming, super eruption, which is quite a low-frequent eruption. However, in order to prepare against a future super eruption, it would be important for us to clarify the possibility of the eruption and its time-scale of preparation processes. Now, we carry out geological and petrological studies for several caldera-forming eruptions in Japan and Indonesia.


Representative Achievements

Petrology of the 120 ka caldera-forming eruption of Kutcharo Volcano, eastern Hokkaido, Japan: Coexistence of multiple silicic magmas and their relationship with mafic magma, A. Mtasumoto, T. Hasegawa and M. Nakagawa, Jour. Petrol., 2018, 59, 771-793.
Evolution of the 120 ka caldera-forming eruption of Kutcharo Volcano, eastern Hokkaido, Japan: Geologic and petrologic evidence for multiple vent systems and rapid generation of pyroclastic flow, T. Hasegawa, A. Matsumoto and M. Nakagawa, Jour. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2016, 321, 58-72.
Evolution and eruption processes of a highly porphyritic silicic magma system: Petrology of the historical eruptive stage of Hokkaido-Komagatake volcano, Japan, R. Takahashi and M. Nakagawa, Jour. Petrol., 2015, 56, 1089-1112.
Formation of a zoned magma chamber and its temporal evolution during the historic eruptive activity of Tarumai Volcano, Japan: Petrological implications for a long-term forecast of eruptive activity of an active volcano, M. Nakagawa, N. Hiraga and R. Furukawa, Jour. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2011, 205, 1-16.
Mixed magmas, mush chambers, and eruption triggers: evidence from zoned clinopyroxene phenocrysts In andesitic scoria from the 1995 eruptions of Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand. Jour. Petrol., 2003, 43, 2279-2303.